The marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine

This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008–2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.

mfx: Marginal Effects, Odds Ratios and Incidence Rate Ratios for GLMs

Estimates probit, logit, Poisson, negative binomial, and beta regression models, returning their marginal effects, odds ratios, or incidence rate ratios as an output.

Efficient Marginal Likelihood Computation for Gaussian Process Regression

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional hyperparameters which need to be tuned in order to achieve optimum predictive performance; this operation can be efficiently performed in an Empirical Bayes fashion by maximizing the posterior marginal likelihood of the observed data. Since the score function of this optimization problem is in general characterized by the presence of local optima, it is necessary to resort to global optimization strategies, which require a large number of function evaluations. Given that the evaluation is usually computationally intensive and badly scaled with respect to the dataset size, the maximum number of observations that can be treated simultaneously is quite limited. In this paper, we consider the case of hyperparameter tuning in Gaussian process regression. A straightforward implementation of the posterior log-likelihood for this model requires O(N^3) operations for every iteration of the optimization procedure, where N is the number of examples in the input dataset. We derive a novel set of identities that allow, after an initial overhead of O(N^3), the evaluation of the score function, as well as the Jacobian and Hessian matrices, in O(N) operations. We prove how the proposed identities, that follow from the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, yield a reduction of several orders of magnitude in the computation time for the hyperparameter optimization problem. Notably, the proposed solution provides computational advantages even with respect to state of the art approximations that rely on sparse kernel matrices.

Genome-wide DNA profiling of marginal zone lymphomas identifies subtype-specific lesions with an impact on the clinical outcome

Marginal zone B-cell lymphomas (MZLs) have been divided into 3 distinct subtypes (extranodal MZLs of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue [MALT] type, nodal MZLs, and splenic MZLs). Nevertheless, the relationship between the subtypes is still unclear. We performed a comprehensive analysis of genomic DNA copy number changes in a very large series of MZL cases with the aim of addressing this question. Samples from 218 MZL patients (25 nodal, 57 MALT, 134 splenic, and 2 not better specified MZLs) were analyzed with the Affymetrix Human Mapping 250K SNP arrays, and the data combined with matched gene expression in 33 of 218 cases. MALT lymphoma presented significantly more frequently gains at 3p, 6p, 18p, and del(6q23) (TNFAIP3/A20), whereas splenic MZLs was associated with del(7q31), del(8p). Nodal MZLs did not show statistically significant differences compared with MALT lymphoma while lacking the splenic MZLs-related 7q losses. Gains of 3q and 18q were common to all 3 subtypes. del(8p) was often present together with del(17p) (TP53). Although del(17p) did not determine a worse outcome and del(8p) was only of borderline significance, the presence of both deletions had a highly significant negative impact on the outcome of splenic MZLs.

Anytime Marginal MAP Inference

This paper presents a new anytime algorithm for the marginal MAP problem in graphical models of bounded treewidth. We show asymptotic convergence and theoretical error bounds for any fixed step. Experiments show that it compares well to a state-of-the-art systematic search algorithm.

Are Alaskan trees found in locally more favourable sites in marginal areas?

Aim Species generally become rarer and more patchily distributed as the margins of their ranges are approached. We predicted that in such marginal sites, tree species would tend to occur where some key environmental factors are at particularly favourable levels, compensating in part for the low overall suitability of marginal sites.

Location The article considers the spatial distributions of trees in Southeast Alaska (the Alaskan 'panhandle').

Methods We quantified range marginality using spatial distributions of eight tree species across more than one thousand surveyed sites in Southeast Alaska. For each species we derived a site core/margin index using a three-dimensional trend surface generated from logistic regression on site coordinates. For each species, the relationships between the environmental factors slope, aspect and site marginality were then compared for occupied and unoccupied sets of sites.

Results We found that site slope is important for more Alaskan tree species than aspect. Three out of eight had a significant core/margin by occupied/unoccupied interaction, tending to be present in significantly shallower-sloped (more favourable) sites in the marginal areas than the simple core/margin trend predicted. For site aspect, one species had a significant interaction, selecting potentially more favourable northerly aspects in marginal areas. A finer-scale analysis based on the same data came to the same overall conclusions.

Conclusions There is evidence that several tree species in Alaska tend to occur in especially favourable sites in marginal areas. In these marginal areas, these species amplify habitat preferences shown in core areas.

An Immunogenetic Signature of Ongoing Antigen Interactions in Splenic Marginal Zone Lymphoma Expressing IGHV1-2*04 Receptors.

Purpose: Prompted by the extensive biases in the immunoglobulin (IG) gene repertoire of splenic marginal-zone lymphoma (SMZL), supporting antigen selection in SMZL ontogeny, we sought to investigate whether antigen involvement is also relevant post-transformation.

Experimental Design: We conducted a large-scale subcloning study of the IG rearrangements of 40 SMZL cases aimed at assessing intraclonal diversification (ID) due to ongoing somatic hypermutation (SHM).

Results: ID was identified in 17 of 21 (81%) rearrangements using the immunoglobulin heavy variable (IGHV)1-2*04 gene versus 8 of 19 (40%) rearrangements utilizing other IGHV genes (P= 0.001). ID was also evident in most analyzed IG light chain gene rearrangements, albeit was more limited compared with IG heavy chains. Identical sequence changes were shared by subclones from different patients utilizing the IGHV1-2*04 gene, confirming restricted ongoing SHM profiles. Non-IGHV1-2*04 cases displayed both a lower number of ongoing SHMs and a lack of shared mutations (per group of cases utilizing the same IGHV gene).

Conclusions: These findings support ongoing antigen involvement in a sizable portion of SMZL and further argue that IGHV1-2*04 SMZL may represent a distinct molecular subtype of the disease.

Genetics and Prognostication in Splenic Marginal Zone Lymphoma: Revelations from Deep Sequencing

Purpose: Mounting evidence supports the clinical significance of gene mutations and immunogenetic features in common mature B-cell malignancies.

Experimental Design: We undertook a detailed characterization of the genetic background of splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL), using targeted resequencing and explored potential clinical implications in a multinational cohort of 175 patients with SMZL.

Results: We identified recurrent mutations in TP53 (16%), KLF2 (12%), NOTCH2 (10%), TNFAIP3 (7%), MLL2 (11%), MYD88 (7%), and ARID1A (6%), all genes known to be targeted by somatic mutation in SMZL. KLF2 mutations were early, clonal events, enriched in patients with del(7q) and IGHV1-2*04 B-cell receptor immunoglobulins, and were associated with a short median time to first treatment (0.12 vs. 1.11 years; P = 0.01). In multivariate analysis, mutations in NOTCH2 [HR, 2.12; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02–4.4; P = 0.044] and 100% germline IGHV gene identity (HR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.05–4.55; P = 0.036) were independent markers of short time to first treatment, whereas TP53 mutations were an independent marker of short overall survival (HR, 2.36; 95 % CI, 1.08–5.2; P = 0.03).

Conclusions: We identify key associations between gene mutations and clinical outcome, demonstrating for the first time that NOTCH2 and TP53 gene mutations are independent markers of reduced treatment-free and overall survival, respectively.

Over 30% of patients with splenic marginal zone lymphoma express the same immunoglobulin heavy variable gene: ontogenetic implications.

We performed an immunogenetic analysis of 345 IGHV-IGHD-IGHJ rearrangements from 337 cases with primary splenic small B-cell lymphomas of marginal-zone origin. Three immunoglobulin (IG) heavy variable (IGHV) genes accounted for 45.8% of the cases (IGHV1-2, 24.9%; IGHV4-34, 12.8%; IGHV3-23, 8.1%). Particularly for the IGHV1-2 gene, strong biases were evident regarding utilization of different alleles, with 79/86 rearrangements (92%) using allele (*)04. Among cases more stringently classified as splenic marginal-zone lymphoma (SMZL) thanks to the availability of splenic histopathological specimens, the frequency of IGHV1-2(*)04 peaked at 31%. The IGHV1-2(*)04 rearrangements carried significantly longer complementarity-determining region-3 (CDR3) than all other cases and showed biased IGHD gene usage, leading to CDR3s with common motifs. The great majority of analyzed rearrangements (299/345, 86.7%) carried IGHV genes with some impact of somatic hypermutation, from minimal to pronounced. Noticeably, 75/79 (95%) IGHV1-2(*)04 rearrangements were mutated; however, they mostly (56/75 cases; 74.6%) carried few mutations (97-99.9% germline identity) of conservative nature and restricted distribution. These distinctive features of the IG receptors indicate selection by (super)antigenic element(s) in the pathogenesis of SMZL. Furthermore, they raise the possibility that certain SMZL subtypes could derive from progenitor populations adapted to particular antigenic challenges through selection of VH domain specificities, in particular the IGHV1-2(*)04 allele.